Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -17.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -12.4 (-0.6) | 131.8 (+3.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -10.0 (-3.0) | 130.5 (+4.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -10.4 (-2.6) | 131.1 (+3.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -11.5 (-1.5) | 131.1 (+3.9) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#316) | 8.9 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#74) | 0.28 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#92) | 0.76 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#54) | 0.648 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 21.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 40.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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