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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–4 on winners spread MAE 9.3 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Boston University @ Hartford	—	—	—	75–70	—
South Carolina Upstate @ East Tennessee State	+7.9	137.1	85%	43–56	✓
Campbell @ Marshall	—	—	—	67–65	—
Coastal Carolina @ UNC Wilmington	—	—	—	53–65	—
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Penn State	+15.1	134.0	89%	59–74	✓
Alabama State @ Iowa	+23.4	158.5	90%	82–108	✓
UAB @ South Carolina	+5.0	143.2	74%	63–66	✓
Presbyterian @ Cincinnati	+11.3	136.7	84%	45–79	✓
Marquette @ Ole Miss	—	—	—	78–72	—
Oklahoma @ East Carolina	—	—	—	79–74	—
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Kentucky	—	—	—	73–74	—
Stony Brook @ Kansas	—	—	—	59–88	—
UT Arlington @ North Texas	—	—	—	36–64	—
Ball State @ Florida International	—	—	—	60–73	—
Cal State Bakersfield @ Northern Arizona	—	—	—	64–74	—
Nicholls @ TCU	+11.6	135.2	88%	50–63	✓
SE Louisiana @ SMU	—	—	—	61–78	—
McNeese @ LSU	—	—	—	46–85	—
Saint Francis @ Virginia Tech	—	—	—	55–85	—
Northern Illinois @ Missouri	+8.1	133.5	87%	37–54	✓
Rutgers @ DePaul	+7.8	144.2	79%	70–73	✓
Samford @ Oregon State	—	—	—	78–77	—
Washington State @ Idaho	-11.8	150.4	20%	109–61	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Northwestern	—	—	—	46–82	—
Elon @ West Virginia	—	—	—	68–87	—
Indiana State @ Old Dominion	+1.1	137.2	54%	77–36	✗
Morgan State @ Seattle U	—	—	—	80–93	—
Southern Utah @ California	+4.0	133.5	75%	68–75	✓
San José State @ California Baptist	+10.9	143.1	87%	66–67	✓
Arizona State @ San Diego State	+10.6	132.4	84%	63–65	✓
Nevada @ San Francisco	+10.3	148.7	81%	70–73	✓
Wyoming @ Washington	-7.1	134.2	23%	77–72	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Portland	+5.0	149.0	76%	74–86	✓
Boise State @ Temple	-5.9	127.4	28%	82–62	✓
New Mexico State @ Utah State	+0.5	141.1	53%	58–85	✓
Bradley @ Colorado State	—	—	—	60–66	—
Texas State @ Utah Tech	—	—	—	85–65	—
St. Bonaventure @ Clemson	+1.8	128.5	56%	68–65	✗
Davidson @ Pennsylvania	-3.8	141.7	30%	72–60	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Massachusetts	+2.1	134.4	71%	90–93	✓
Troy @ North Dakota	-6.3	141.0	40%	72–74	✗
Brown @ Creighton	+4.6	140.2	64%	57–78	✓
Yale @ Vermont	+3.6	136.4	66%	53–61	✓
Oklahoma @ Indiana State	-7.6	148.8	25%	87–63	✓
American University @ Longwood	—	—	—	42–82	—
Eastern Washington @ Cal State Northridge	—	—	—	67–64	—
St. Thomas @ Youngstown State	+3.2	147.5	65%	75–79	✓
Liberty @ Iona	—	—	—	50–54	—
Weber State @ Ball State	-5.6	142.6	28%	85–74	✓
Norfolk State @ Bowling Green	-1.1	150.2	44%	90–84	✓
Northeastern @ Duquesne	-0.7	122.0	52%	71–55	✓
UT Martin @ Florida Atlantic	—	—	—	67–75	—
Towson @ Pittsburgh	-0.5	137.5	52%	59–63	✗
Hofstra @ Maryland	+3.7	145.9	76%	67–69	✓
Siena @ Georgetown	+17.6	131.1	90%	65–83	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.