Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | CSU -900 BRAD +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +6 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -12.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -9.4 (-3.4) | 146.6 (-20.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -10.5 (-4.5) | 145.7 (-19.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -11.3 (-5.3) | 150.2 (-24.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#60) | -5.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#115) | -2.28 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#106) | -3.56 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.240 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.7% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 21.2% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 16.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.0% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.7% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.5% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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