Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +3 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -5.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (+49.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -2.1 (+0.9) | 134.4 (+48.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -2.6 (+0.4) | 133.9 (+49.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -2.2 (+0.8) | 136.2 (+46.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -4.0 (-1.0) | 136.5 (+46.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 65.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#135) | -3.4 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#136) | 1.89 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#88) | 2.05 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#61) | 0.456 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 46.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 38.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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