Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +21 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -0.1 (+20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -4.6 (+16.4) | 140.2 (-5.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -0.5 (+20.5) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -0.9 (+20.1) | 142.0 (-7.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -1.7 (+19.3) | 143.2 (-8.2) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 12-7 | 5-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#152) | 0.9 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#45) | 0.09 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#56) | 0.10 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#126) | 0.536 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 47.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.4% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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