Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -10.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -4.0 (+3.0) | 133.5 (+9.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -5.6 (+1.4) | 139.0 (+4.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -6.9 (+0.1) | 138.1 (+4.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -7.1 (-0.1) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#254) | -4.5 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#175) | -0.83 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#159) | -1.09 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.648 (#63) | 0.312 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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