Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +36 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | NU -22.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -19.2 (+16.8) | 149.5 (-21.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -25.6 (+10.4) | 149.1 (-21.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -23.6 (+12.4) | 144.8 (-16.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 3-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#61) | -7.4 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#117) | -0.07 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#113) | -0.05 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#234) | 0.750 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 28.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 6.7% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.50 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 28.9% |
| TOV% | 8.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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