Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -1.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -0.8 (+0.2) | 153.6 (-6.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -0.5 (+0.5) | 152.9 (-5.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.0 (-1.0) | 156.0 (-9.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#300) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#318) | 0.09 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#301) | 0.11 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#168) | 0.667 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.4% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.9% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 55.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.1% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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