Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USU +165 NMSU -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +27 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -3.3 (+30.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -0.5 (+26.5) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -2.6 (+29.6) | 142.6 (+0.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -2.6 (+29.6) | 142.5 (+0.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -3.0 (+30.0) | 142.3 (+0.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 9-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#153) | 4.3 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#141) | 1.95 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#138) | 3.19 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#86) | 0.854 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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