Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -10.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -4.4 (+3.6) | 147.8 (-5.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -5.4 (+2.6) | 149.5 (-7.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -3.8 (+4.2) | 147.5 (-5.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#233) | -3.6 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#346) | -0.47 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.63 (#341) | -0.67 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#306) | 0.500 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 29.5% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 5.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.3% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 40.2% | 9.1% |
Game Analysis
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