Betting Lines
| Spread | ODU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +41 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | ODU -4.9 (-45.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ODU -1.1 (-42.1) | 137.2 (-24.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ODU -3.4 (-44.4) | 142.9 (-29.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ODU -2.9 (-43.9) | 143.4 (-30.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ODU -1.0 (-42.0) | 141.2 (-28.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#69) | 0.8 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#108) | 0.92 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#92) | 1.12 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.812 (#9) | 0.529 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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