Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +15 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -19.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -15.1 (-0.1) | 134.0 (-1.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -11.6 (+3.4) | 142.0 (-9.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -14.6 (+0.4) | 140.7 (-7.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -11.6 (+3.4) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 3-9 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#184) | -10.6 (#338) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#89) | -2.76 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#57) | -4.25 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#70) | 0.208 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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