Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -13.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -6.3 (+8.3) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.8 (+9.8) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -8.3 (+10.3) | 142.3 (+3.7) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -7.4 (+9.4) | 143.8 (+2.2) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-6 |
| Home | 4-11 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -15.3 (#352) | -2.2 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#344) | -0.44 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.37 (#350) | -0.95 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.221 (#343) | 0.526 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 19.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 83.1% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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