Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | BALL +360 WEB -475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +11 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | WEB -8.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -5.6 (-5.4) | 142.6 (+16.4) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -5.7 (-5.3) | 145.6 (+13.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -5.3 (-5.7) | 144.4 (+14.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -5.7 (-5.3) | 142.4 (+16.6) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#176) | 8.4 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#154) | 2.34 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#152) | 3.82 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#110) | 0.715 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 45.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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