Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | FIU -1.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -0.4 (+12.6) | 137.0 (-4.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -0.5 (+12.5) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -0.3 (+13.3) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#131) | -0.1 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#236) | 0.31 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#232) | 0.40 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#292) | 0.562 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.9% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 3.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.7% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 59.5% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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