Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +3 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | CLEM -6.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -1.8 (-4.8) | 128.5 (+4.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -3.1 (-6.1) | 132.2 (+0.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -4.5 (-7.5) | 131.1 (+1.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -1.5 (-4.5) | 128.9 (+4.1) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#40) | 1.7 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#37) | 2.20 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#45) | 4.23 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.729 (#28) | 0.514 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.7% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 48.1% | 21.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.2% | 39.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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