Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +17 | 91 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -2.4 (+14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-55.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -8.1 (+8.9) | 133.5 (-42.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -3.1 (+13.9) | 144.2 (-53.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -3.3 (+13.7) | 144.2 (-53.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -6.9 (+10.1) | 142.5 (-51.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 3-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#332) | -2.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#269) | 1.74 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#284) | 2.46 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#300) | 0.800 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 28.9% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 38.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 40.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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