Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.7 (-1.7) | 145.9 (-9.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -3.6 (-1.6) | 146.1 (-10.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -3.0 (-1.0) | 146.5 (-10.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.4 (-1.4) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#173) | 6.4 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#161) | 1.04 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#155) | 1.83 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#49) | 0.709 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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