Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -11.4 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -6.9 (+1.9) | 142.2 (+10.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -7.1 (+2.1) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -6.3 (+1.3) | 146.0 (+7.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#199) | 10.4 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#104) | 0.54 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#105) | 0.82 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#180) | 0.562 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 56.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 64.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 8.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 37.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 9.8% |
Game Analysis
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