Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +8 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -7.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -3.6 (+4.4) | 136.4 (-22.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -5.0 (+3.0) | 136.7 (-22.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -4.6 (+3.4) | 135.0 (-21.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -4.7 (+3.3) | 138.5 (-24.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | YALE 77 – 74 UVM |
| Dec 7, 2024 | YALE 65 – 50 UVM |
| Dec 3, 2023 | UVM 66 – 65 YALE |
| Nov 23, 2022 | YALE 73 – 44 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-3 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#103) | 5.6 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#155) | 1.29 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#161) | 2.11 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#208) | 0.678 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 16.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 11.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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