What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
Patrick Gymnasium · November 19, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UVM -5.5 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVM win
Actual UVM +8 114 Won
Massey UVM -7.5 (+0.5)
Massey Totals 131.8 (-17.8)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 65%
Efficiency Plus ML UVM -3.6 (+4.4) 136.4 (-22.4) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML UVM -5.0 (+3.0) 136.7 (-22.7) 65%
Baseline ML UVM -4.6 (+3.4) 135.0 (-21.0) 69%
Baseline Plus ML UVM -4.7 (+3.3) 138.5 (-24.5) 64%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2025 YALE 7774 UVM
Dec 7, 2024 YALE 6550 UVM
Dec 3, 2023 UVM 6665 YALE
Nov 23, 2022 YALE 7344 UVM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVM YALE
Overall 28-6 19-12
Conference 17-1 11-3
Home 16-0 10-3
Away 10-4 6-6
Neutral 2-2 3-3
Last 5 1-1 2-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.6 71.3
Avg Pts Against 61.1 70.0
Massey 3.9 (#103) 5.6 (#70)
Bradley-Terry 0.28 (#155) 1.29 (#64)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.31 (#161) 2.11 (#58)
RPI 0.487 (#208) 0.678 (#50)
Shooting & Four Factors UVM YALE
FG% 40.0% 41.8%
3PT% 32.7% 31.5%
REB / G 33.5 38.3
OREB / G 6.0 8.7
AST / TO 1.47 0.94
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 48.1%
TOV% 12.8% 16.5%
ORB% 16.4% 22.6%
FT Rate 11.7% 23.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 41.6% 45.3%
Opp TOV% 18.7% 18.4%
DRB% 73.3% 72.4%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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