Betting Lines
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UVM +230 YALE -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -4.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 173.3 (-22.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -5.2 (+2.2) | 150.1 (+0.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -1.8 (-1.2) | 155.5 (-4.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -2.1 (-0.9) | 157.5 (-6.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -3.9 (+0.9) | 153.4 (-2.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | YALE 65 – 50 UVM |
| Dec 3, 2023 | UVM 66 – 65 YALE |
| Nov 23, 2022 | YALE 73 – 44 UVM |
| Nov 19, 2021 | UVM 61 – 53 YALE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 11-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#131) | 12.7 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#115) | 2.57 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#104) | 3.38 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#102) | 0.644 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 52.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 45.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 60.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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