Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | YALE -260 UVM +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +15 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -15.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -11.1 (+3.9) | 136.2 (-21.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -10.8 (+4.2) | 137.7 (-22.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -12.0 (+3.0) | 138.5 (-23.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -11.8 (+3.2) | 138.2 (-23.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | YALE 77 – 74 UVM |
| Dec 3, 2023 | UVM 66 – 65 YALE |
| Nov 23, 2022 | YALE 73 – 44 UVM |
| Nov 19, 2021 | UVM 61 – 53 YALE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 13-3 |
| Home | 11-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#100) | -6.1 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#208) | -0.75 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#226) | -1.06 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#170) | 0.482 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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