Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -15.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -11.6 (+1.4) | 135.2 (-22.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -12.4 (+0.6) | 137.7 (-24.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -16.4 (-3.4) | 136.6 (-23.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -14.4 (-1.4) | 138.6 (-25.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#96) | -1.8 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#138) | 0.53 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#144) | 0.40 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#225) | 0.508 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 55.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 47.1% | 16.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.0% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 81.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.9% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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