Betting Lines
| Spread | OU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +24 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | OU -9.7 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OU -7.6 (-16.4) | 148.8 (+1.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OU -5.9 (-18.1) | 145.8 (+4.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OU -5.3 (-18.7) | 148.6 (+1.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OU -6.9 (-17.1) | 147.6 (+2.4) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#157) | 10.4 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#95) | 0.54 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#104) | 0.82 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#148) | 0.562 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 56.8% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 64.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 8.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 37.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 79.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 9.8% |
Game Analysis
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