Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +34 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -10.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -11.3 (+22.7) | 136.7 (-12.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -8.5 (+25.5) | 137.8 (-13.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -10.2 (+23.8) | 136.9 (-12.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -11.4 (+22.6) | 140.5 (-16.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#117) | 1.7 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#70) | 1.09 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#82) | 1.56 (#78) |
| RPI | 0.694 (#41) | 0.792 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 21.7% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 83.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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