Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | UTU +270 TXST -330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +20 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -8.3 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -4.6 (-15.4) | 147.0 (+3.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -4.6 (-15.4) | 149.4 (+0.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -4.6 (-15.4) | 145.2 (+4.8) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 21-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 65.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#296) | 1.7 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#166) | -0.21 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#164) | -0.92 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#162) | 0.475 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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