Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -110 LIB -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +4 | 104 | Won |
| Massey | LIB -4.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-40.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -0.3 (+3.7) | 141.8 (-37.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -0.1 (+4.1) | 140.0 (-36.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -1.7 (+2.3) | 143.6 (-39.6) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#171) | 4.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#47) | -0.36 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#53) | -0.51 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#21) | 0.562 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 30.0% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 37.7% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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