Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +12 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | DAV -4.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -3.8 (-8.2) | 141.7 (-9.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -2.5 (-9.5) | 144.5 (-12.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -3.0 (-9.0) | 146.9 (-14.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -2.7 (-9.3) | 146.2 (-14.2) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-3 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#229) | 2.1 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#176) | 0.01 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#193) | 0.43 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#137) | 0.658 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 44.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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