Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +1 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | ORST -12.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (+35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -7.2 (-8.2) | 128.5 (+26.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -9.7 (-10.7) | 127.7 (+27.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -8.7 (-9.7) | 131.5 (+23.5) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 10-8 |
| Home | 3-13 | 13-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#208) | -5.2 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#257) | -0.35 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#257) | -0.48 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#183) | 0.542 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 32.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 37.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 11.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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