Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -20.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +30 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VT -18.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -15.0 (+15.0) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -20.1 (+9.9) | 136.9 (+3.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -20.8 (+9.2) | 137.4 (+2.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#18) | 2.6 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#10) | -1.00 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#7) | -1.25 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#170) | 0.139 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 11.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 12.9% | 41.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.1% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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