Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +28 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -18.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -11.9 (+16.1) | 136.2 (-36.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -11.9 (+16.1) | 137.3 (-37.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -14.0 (+14.0) | 132.4 (-32.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | UNT 78 – 52 UTA |
| Dec 7, 2022 | UNT 60 – 57 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#257) | -13.2 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#341) | -2.28 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.40 (#337) | -3.24 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.125 (#355) | 0.333 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 32.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.7% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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