Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | UNT -355 UTA +278 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +26 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -7.9 (+18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -10.5 (+15.5) | 131.0 (-1.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.2 (+18.8) | 135.3 (-5.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.2 (+18.8) | 135.7 (-5.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.3 (+17.7) | 134.8 (-4.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2022 | UNT 60 – 57 UTA |
| Nov 19, 2021 | UNT 64 – 36 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#108) | 0.2 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#247) | -0.08 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#176) | -0.20 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#252) | 0.522 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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