Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 114.5 Over |
| Money | UTA +500 UNT -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +3 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -7.1 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 106.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -8.9 (+5.9) | 120.7 (-3.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -4.9 (+1.9) | 121.1 (-4.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -5.9 (+2.9) | 122.9 (-5.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -7.4 (+4.4) | 123.6 (-6.6) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | UNT 78 – 52 UTA |
| Nov 19, 2021 | UNT 64 – 36 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 31-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 6-8 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 56.3 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#295) | 5.8 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#296) | 1.30 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#293) | 2.06 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#222) | 0.549 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.5% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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