Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -1.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -0.5 (+4.5) | 137.5 (-15.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.9 (+5.9) | 138.2 (-16.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -2.6 (+6.6) | 137.6 (-15.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -2.7 (+6.7) | 138.0 (-16.0) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-11 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#288) | 5.0 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#320) | -0.42 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#320) | -0.73 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.329 (#311) | 0.383 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 28.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 34.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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