Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +40 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -2.9 (+37.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.7 (+39.3) | 150.9 (-26.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.9 (+39.1) | 150.5 (-26.5) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -5.2 (+34.8) | 152.9 (-28.9) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | AMER 92 – 66 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#295) | -0.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#192) | 0.72 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | 0.81 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#110) | 0.428 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.1% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.2% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 18.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 66.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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