Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AMER -230 LONG +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +26 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -8.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -4.0 (+22.0) | 147.1 (+10.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -5.1 (+20.9) | 147.3 (+10.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -5.6 (+20.4) | 147.9 (+10.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -4.3 (+21.7) | 147.6 (+10.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2021 | LONG 82 – 42 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#247) | -7.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#254) | -1.44 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#231) | -0.76 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#225) | 0.410 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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