We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
American University Eagles
92 66
FINAL Capital Thanksgiving Classic
Longwood Lancers
Bender Arena · November 30, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread AMER -5.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money AMER -230 / LONG +190
Model Predictions
Spread Total AMER win
Actual AMER +26 158 Won
Massey AMER -8.2 (+17.8)
Massey Totals 160.7 (-2.7)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 73%
Efficiency Plus ML AMER -4.0 (+22.0) 147.1 (+10.9) 68%
Baseline Tuned ML AMER -5.1 (+20.9) 147.3 (+10.7) 69%
Baseline ML AMER -5.6 (+20.4) 147.9 (+10.1) 71%
Baseline Plus ML AMER -4.3 (+21.7) 147.6 (+10.4) 68%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 19, 2021 LONG 8242 AMER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AMER LONG
Overall 16-16 16-16
Conference 9-9 8-8
Home 11-6 11-4
Away 5-10 4-10
Neutral 0-0 1-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 72.0 75.9
Avg Pts Against 72.7 76.2
Massey -4.8 (#247) -7.5 (#286)
Bradley-Terry -0.98 (#254) -1.44 (#298)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.01 (#231) -0.76 (#221)
RPI 0.464 (#225) 0.410 (#313)
Shooting & Four Factors AMER LONG
FG% 42.1% 41.9%
3PT% 30.2% 27.9%
REB / G 30.2 35.3
OREB / G 8.2 12.0
AST / TO 0.79 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.0% 46.6%
TOV% 18.7% 19.5%
ORB% 22.4% 32.6%
FT Rate 22.0% 34.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.4% 56.5%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 22.2%
DRB% 68.4% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 41.3% 21.9%

Game Analysis

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