Betting Lines
| Spread | EWU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUN -3.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -1.3 (-4.3) | 145.5 (-14.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -2.5 (-5.5) | 144.8 (-13.8) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -3.0 (-6.0) | 142.5 (-11.5) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUN | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 4-11 | 9-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L7 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#319) | -2.5 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#223) | -1.52 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#220) | -2.65 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#159) | 0.243 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUN | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 25.5 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.5% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 10.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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