Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +13 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | SEA -17.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -12.5 (+0.5) | 141.2 (+31.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -15.3 (-2.3) | 140.5 (+32.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -16.2 (-3.2) | 138.9 (+34.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-6 |
| Home | 17-2 | 8-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#185) | -8.4 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#164) | -0.07 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#165) | -0.05 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#231) | 0.688 (#44) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 40.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 6.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 64.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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