Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -2.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -0.5 (-6.5) | 148.0 (+26.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -1.1 (-4.9) | 150.2 (+23.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -0.4 (-5.6) | 144.2 (+29.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -0.5 (-6.5) | 146.2 (+27.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | NORF 81 – 75 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-2 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#299) | -0.2 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#279) | 0.68 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#277) | 0.67 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.292 (#330) | 0.417 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.3% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 21.8% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 30.4% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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