Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -200 BGSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -7.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -5.8 (+0.2) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -6.3 (-0.3) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.8 (+0.2) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -6.0 (-0.0) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2021 | NORF 90 – 84 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#224) | -4.3 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#117) | -0.71 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#123) | -1.21 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#109) | 0.448 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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