Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUB -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NAU -14.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -6.7 (+3.3) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -6.3 (+3.7) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -6.9 (+3.1) | 139.1 (-1.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 2-12 |
| Home | 5-10 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#209) | -7.1 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#297) | -0.28 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#304) | -0.36 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#279) | 0.625 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 28.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 16.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 4.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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