Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -20.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -14.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -13.7 (+3.3) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -18.5 (-1.5) | 147.2 (-8.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -15.6 (+1.4) | 145.5 (-6.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 10-4 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#54) | 2.1 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#185) | -1.72 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | -2.63 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#268) | 0.062 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.6% | 9.7% |
Game Analysis
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