Betting Lines
| Spread | YSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
| Money | YSU -500 STMN +395 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YSU +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | YSU -9.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YSU -3.2 (+0.8) | 147.5 (+6.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YSU -7.0 (-3.0) | 155.1 (-1.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YSU -7.0 (-3.0) | 156.6 (-2.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YSU -7.6 (-3.6) | 153.7 (+0.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-7 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#64) | 5.3 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#27) | 0.22 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#24) | 0.36 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#104) | 0.392 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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