Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +13 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -8.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.7 (-48.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -7.9 (+5.1) | 137.1 (-38.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -3.9 (+9.1) | 144.2 (-45.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -4.4 (+8.6) | 144.6 (-45.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -6.4 (+6.6) | 144.0 (-45.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 23, 2024 | ETSU 87 – 76 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#246) | -2.2 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#295) | -0.68 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#270) | -0.95 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.333 (#306) | 0.479 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 27.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 3.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 9.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 58.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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