Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -900 UPST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -13.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -12.4 (-1.4) | 149.7 (+13.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -10.1 (+0.9) | 153.7 (+9.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -10.1 (+0.9) | 154.8 (+8.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -11.4 (-0.4) | 151.1 (+11.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2021 | ETSU 56 – 43 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 2-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 85.5 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#186) | -8.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#316) | -1.89 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#303) | -2.52 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#286) | 0.457 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 40.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.8% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 59.7% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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