Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Freedom Hall (TN) · November 23, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread ETSU -11.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money ETSU -900 / UPST +550
Model Predictions
Spread Total ETSU win
Actual ETSU +11 163 Won
Massey ETSU -13.6 (-2.6)
Massey Totals 164.8 (-1.8)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 84%
Baseline Plus ML ETSU -12.4 (-1.4) 149.7 (+13.3) 86%
Baseline ML ETSU -10.1 (+0.9) 153.7 (+9.3) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML ETSU -10.1 (+0.9) 154.8 (+8.2) 81%
Efficiency Plus ML ETSU -11.4 (-0.4) 151.1 (+11.9) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 19, 2021 ETSU 5643 UPST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ETSU UPST
Overall 19-13 6-26
Conference 12-6 2-14
Home 13-3 4-10
Away 6-9 2-14
Neutral 0-1 0-2
Last 5 0-2 0-4
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 71.6 72.6
Avg Pts Against 67.4 85.5
Massey -0.9 (#186) -8.1 (#309)
Bradley-Terry -1.90 (#316) -1.89 (#314)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.69 (#303) -2.52 (#294)
RPI 0.427 (#286) 0.457 (#244)
Shooting & Four Factors ETSU UPST
FG% 45.3% 44.5%
3PT% 34.0% 32.7%
REB / G 33.0 33.2
OREB / G 14.5 10.5
AST / TO 0.85 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.1% 51.0%
TOV% 15.6% 20.7%
ORB% 40.8% 29.6%
FT Rate 22.2% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 58.8% 56.7%
Opp TOV% 19.2% 13.2%
DRB% 59.7% 65.9%
Opp FT Rate 28.7% 34.6%

Game Analysis

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