Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -2.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.2 (+4.2) | 136.7 (-5.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -0.1 (+2.9) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -1.8 (+4.8) | 137.9 (-6.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -3.7 (+6.7) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2025 | GMU 82 – 66 JMU |
| Nov 29, 2024 | GMU 66 – 61 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-14 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#182) | 11.1 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.05 (#1) | 3.34 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.09 (#2) | 5.05 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.816 (#2) | 0.617 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 24.0% | 42.6% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 81.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 8.3% |
Game Analysis
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