Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +10 | 100 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -12.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -8.5 (+1.5) | 129.2 (-29.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -5.5 (+4.5) | 128.5 (-28.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -7.6 (+2.4) | 125.1 (-25.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -7.6 (+2.4) | 132.5 (-32.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.9 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#137) | -2.2 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#73) | -3.52 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#68) | -6.00 (#356) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#163) | 0.301 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 26.3 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 15.3% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 60.4% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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