Betting Lines
| Spread | MISS -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MISS +18 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MISS -5.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MISS -6.5 (-11.5) | 144.5 (-14.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MISS -5.0 (-13.0) | 145.2 (-15.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MISS -3.9 (-14.1) | 146.6 (-16.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MISS -4.3 (-13.7) | 147.6 (-17.6) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#225) | 2.4 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#231) | -0.05 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#224) | -0.12 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#63) | 0.470 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 2.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 8.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 80.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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