Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | TROY -450 UTM +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +13 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -2.4 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -0.7 (+12.3) | 139.8 (+7.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -0.1 (+13.1) | 139.6 (+7.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.5 (+13.5) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.1 (+13.1) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#281) | -3.0 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#325) | -1.74 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.91 (#328) | -2.58 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#263) | 0.323 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 23.5% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 9.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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