Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | STMN +281 NIA -366 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -3.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -3.5 (+5.5) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.9 (+7.1) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.4 (+6.6) | 149.3 (-6.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.9 (+6.1) | 145.9 (-2.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-8 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#67) | 2.8 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#166) | -0.67 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#163) | -0.85 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#279) | 0.521 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 46.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 11.4% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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